Every January, it’s easy to make predictions about where the ESOP market is headed. It’s much harder to look back six months later and honestly assess which of those predictions held up.
Bank lending appetite, private equity behavior, workforce demand, and legislative momentum all shift throughout the year, and business owners weighing succession options need a current read, not a January snapshot.
Most business owners exploring an ESOP for the first time assume the process and the market conditions around it are static — that whatever they’ve heard about ESOP lending or valuation a year or two ago still applies today. In practice, lending appetite, deal structures, and even who is bringing ESOP conversations to the table can shift meaningfully within a single year, which is why a periodic reality check matters more than a one-time prediction.
This episode walks through where several major ESOP market dynamics actually stand at the midpoint of 2026: bank lending conditions, private equity’s growing interest in ESOPs as an exit path, workforce and hiring trends tied to employee ownership, legislative movement in Washington, and where ESOP deal activity is concentrated by industry.
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Video Transcript
Chapter 1: Welcome and recap of the LA trip
Chapter 2: Recap of the ESOP 101 bank event in Irvine
Chapter 3: Introducing the midyear check-in on 2026 predictions
Chapter 4: Prediction 1: Banks compete harder to lend on ESOP formations
Chapter 5: Prediction 2: Private-equity-owned companies turn to ESOPs
Chapter 6: Prediction 3: Gen X owners use partial ESOPs for liquidity
Chapter 7: Prediction 4: AI raises awareness of ESOPs as a liquidity tool
Chapter 8: Prediction 5: Employees actively seek out ESOP-owned employers
Chapter 9: Prediction 6: The first cannabis ESOP of 2026 closes
Chapter 10: Prediction 7: Demographics and legislation create a “perfect storm”
Chapter 11: Prediction 8: ESOPs gain a deal-certainty edge over private equity
Chapter 12: Prediction 9: Architecture, construction, and engineering keep leading
Chapter 13: Prediction 10: Ownership culture before ESOP implementation
Chapter 14: ESOPs shift from last resort to strategic tool
Chapter 15: Why ESOPs are “the endurance option”
Chapter 16: Ben’s five predictions for the rest of 2026
Chapter 17: Closing and where to find ESOP Radio
Bank Lending for ESOP Formations Has Gotten More Competitive
One of the most concrete shifts in 2026 has been on the lending side. Banks that understand the ESOP structure have become more willing to lend into ESOP formations, largely because ESOP-owned companies tend to bring strong cash flow, engaged employees, and experienced management to the table. That appetite now extends well beyond a handful of specialty lenders — several of the largest national banks by assets are actively competing for ESOP-related lending, alongside a growing number of regional banks.
The practical effect for business owners is a more competitive lending market, which matters because most ESOP transactions include some form of financing. Owners considering an ESOP should still expect the lending conversation to be an integral part of structuring the deal, but the range of willing lenders has expanded. Because financing terms, leverage limits, and structure vary by lender and by transaction, owners should work with their ESOP advisor and lender directly rather than assuming any single set of terms applies broadly.
Private Equity-Owned Companies Are Increasingly Looking at ESOPs
A second notable trend is the growing number of conversations between private equity firms and ESOP advisors. This is showing up most often with software companies nearing the end of a typical PE holding period, where valuation is usually the central question. For a company to make sense as an ESOP, it generally needs to demonstrate positive and strong cash flow, since the ESOP structure depends on the company’s ability to service its own transaction debt over time.
Part of what’s driving this trend is the number of private equity funds holding portfolio companies well past their typical investment horizon — sometimes referred to as “zombie funds” — that need to generate liquidity for their investors without a robust M&A market to rely on. Rather than transferring a portfolio company into a continuation fund, some firms are instead choosing an ESOP sale. One example discussed on the episode involved a Washington, D.C.-area boat manufacturer with the U.S. Navy as one of its largest clients. The company had been trending downward under private equity ownership, and its PE owner sold it to an ESOP, a transition that has reportedly gone well for the business since.
Gen X Business Owners Are Using Partial ESOPs to Take Chips Off the Table
A third trend worth watching is the growing number of Gen X business owners using a partial ESOP transaction — selling less than 100% of the company to the ESOP — to gain liquidity while keeping the business independent. This differs from the traditional image of an ESOP as a full, one-time exit. A partial sale lets an owner de-risk personally without giving up control or independence, and it appears to be a meaningful entry point for owners who aren’t ready for a full transition but want to begin planning early.
This ties directly into a broader planning point: succession plans built with time on your side tend to go more smoothly than plans built under pressure. Business owners weighing a full sale later in their career often find that a partial ESOP transaction now creates flexibility rather than closing off options.
AI Is Showing Up in ESOP Conversations — as a Validation Tool, Not a Replacement
Business owners and their advisors are increasingly using AI tools during ESOP discussions, but largely as a way to fact-check information in real time rather than to replace the advisory relationship itself. In one example from the episode, a prospect’s finance team member used an AI tool on his phone during a meeting to verify what was being said. AI appears well suited to research, industry education, and getting up to speed quickly on valuation concepts and ESOP mechanics. It has not, however, replaced the relationship-driven work of structuring and closing a transaction, which still depends heavily on trust and judgment between the parties involved.
Employees Are Actively Seeking Out ESOP-Owned Employers
Anecdotally, ESOP advisors have long heard that employees value working at an employee-owned company. That anecdotal pattern now has some data behind it. A Central Valley Business Times study found that job seekers in that region — particularly those looking for construction jobs — were actively seeking out ESOP-owned companies. Job platforms such as Certified EO have also built out databases specifically listing openings at employee-owned companies, giving job seekers a direct way to find them.
For business owners, this suggests that ESOP status may increasingly function as a hiring and retention advantage, not just a succession and tax planning tool, particularly in labor markets where skilled workers have options.
The First Cannabis Company ESOP of 2026
Earlier in 2026, a cannabis company in Pennsylvania completed the first cannabis industry ESOP transaction of the year, handled by another advisory firm. Cannabis companies have historically faced two challenges in considering an ESOP: ongoing legal and regulatory ambiguity at the federal level, and valuation, since many cannabis businesses were valued well above what their cash flows could support during the industry’s earlier growth phase. With more transaction precedent now available for valuing cannabis businesses, and continued movement toward deregulation, more cannabis companies may explore the ESOP structure going forward. Given the legal complexity specific to cannabis businesses, owners in this industry should involve ERISA counsel early in any ESOP exploration.
Legislation and Demographics Are Reinforcing Each Other
Several pieces of pro-ESOP legislation are currently moving through the House and Senate, and federal regulatory leadership overseeing employee benefit plans has been described as supportive of the ESOP structure. Combined with a wave of baby boomer and Gen X business owners approaching retirement age, this creates conditions that may continue to push more owners toward ESOPs as a succession option. Because federal legislation can change during the drafting and negotiation process, owners should not plan around specific provisions until a bill is finalized.
Why ESOPs Are Increasingly Compared Favorably to Private Equity Sales
One dynamic worth understanding: an ESOP transaction and a private equity sale are structured very differently when it comes to certainty of closing. In a private equity sale, valuation is often the subject of prolonged negotiation, and a meaningful share of these deals fail to close. In an ESOP transaction, valuation is set within a defensible fair market value range determined by an independent process, which tends to produce a higher likelihood of reaching a completed deal. Sell-side advisors, the company, and the ESOP trustee are all generally aligned in wanting to see a fair transaction close, which contributes to that dynamic.
Which Industries Are Leading ESOP Adoption
Architecture, construction, and engineering companies continue to represent a large share of ESOP transactions, often because these businesses already have strong operational cultures that translate well into an ownership structure. That said, ESOP advisors are also seeing interest from less traditional industries — payments companies, for example — suggesting the pool of viable ESOP candidates may be broader than the historical pattern suggests.
Building Ownership Culture Before Implementing an ESOP
A final trend worth noting: more companies are intentionally building an ownership-oriented culture before they implement an ESOP, rather than treating culture as something that follows automatically from the transaction. Operating frameworks such as EOS (the Entrepreneurial Operating System) are sometimes used to help shift a company toward more employee buy-in ahead of a transaction. It’s worth being clear about what an ESOP can and cannot do here: an ESOP does not create a strong culture on its own, but it can accelerate or amplify a culture that already exists. Companies with weaker existing cultures, significant key-person risk, or heavy customer concentration may be less well suited to the ESOP structure regardless of how the transaction itself is designed.
Looking Ahead
At the midpoint of 2026, the broad direction of the ESOP market looks largely consistent with what was expected at the start of the year: more competitive bank lending, growing private equity interest in ESOPs as an exit path, continued legislative support, and a widening set of industries and owner profiles considering the structure. For business owners, the practical takeaway is that ESOPs are increasingly being evaluated as a proactive, strategic option rather than a fallback — which makes early planning, well before a transaction is necessary, more valuable than ever.
If you’re a business owner trying to understand whether an ESOP fits your succession goals, the most useful next step is an honest, data-driven look at your specific situation rather than general market trends. Menke & Associates offers a Feasibility Questionnaire for a Free Preliminary Analysis to help owners understand whether an ESOP is a realistic fit before committing further time or resources. You can also reach out directly through our Contact Us page with specific questions about your company’s situation.
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About ESOP Radio
ESOP Radio is the official ESOP podcast from Menke — where real stories of growth, succession, and long-term wealth building are told.
Hosted by Trevor Gilmore and Ben Spadt, the show features conversations and educational episodes designed to help business owners better understand employee ownership.
Disclaimer
This podcast is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax, investment, or fiduciary advice.
Phil DeDominicis is an ESOP strategist and M&A advisor who has guided 300+ companies through ESOP formations, financing, and transactions over 20+ years at Menke & Associates. He specializes in selling ESOP‑owned businesses to financial or strategic buyers and in helping ESOP companies acquire other businesses.





